月供醫療保險

朋友問:有無識保險的朋友可以幫手睇下呢個計劃買唔買得過?

十年計劃,每月月繳六百多元,十年後比返晒你,計劃期間每入一晚醫院有二百五十元的住院現金。

我的答案如下:

買唔過。基本上凡是有儲蓄成份的保險都唔係好買得過。計算方法如下:

假設月供$700, 一年十二個月就供$8400。如果年利率1.5%,一年就收$126。

第一年這筆錢,十年後可收九年利息$1134($126*9)。

同一原理,第二年的$8400,十年後就收$1008。($126*8)

如此類推,供完十年,保險公司就會收到$126*(9+8+7+6+..+1) = $5670。

將這筆錢攤開十年用,每年就可以有$472.5 ($5670/12)

所以只要你一年入院少過兩日,保險公司一定有得賺。

這個假設是以最保守的1.5%計算。如果投資回報好過1.5%(保險公司一定得),投資回報就更多。如果你夠紀律,做銀行的零存整付,或儲錢買人民幣債券,都一定可以超過年息1.5%。進取一點,月供指數基金、股票回報就更好了。

不過,其實多做運動,少吃生冷,保持健康避免住院,這才是最高回報的方法。

試算表(spreadsheet): https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AmZyOroGsULZdDI3anZqaEZIeWdYcVR6c2JGMWwxdHc&hl=zh_TW&output=html

補充:

那些只付費, 沒有儲蓄成份的保險較好。以前我聽過有plan同上述例子差不多,入院每日有$600。但只需月供$100,供完無錢退。一年共供款$1200,其實相等於每年儲兩日住院的錢在保險公司。當你每年住院多過兩日,就可以賺到保險公司的錢。

說穿了,保險其實是應付意外開支的特殊財務安排。凡是自己應付得來的使費,買保險都唔著數。只有那些自己無能力應付的支出(即大額開支),才要買保險。

保險公司將客戶的風險平均分配,然後再加上公司的營運開支和盈利,然後叫客戶分擔費用(保費)。買保險其實是同保險公司對賭,賭自己發生不幸事件的機率。只有發生不幸事件的機率高於平均水平,你才會贏得到保險公司。(參考上面「每年住院多過兩日」的例子。)

與其希望發生不幸事件的機率高於平均水平,不如小心保重身體,減低發生不幸事件的風險好過。

我的想法源出以下這本書:

Lack of capital is what makes us buy insurance. The insurance company collects premiums that are based on the probability of having to pay benefits, plus some additional charge for expenses and some profit. On the average, the policyholder loses because of this additional charge. Where the policyholder gains is in the area of large but rare losses. We buy insurance to cover losses that are too heavy to be covered by our own resources, but that are also rare enough that we can afford the premiums. We should not buy insurance to cover losses that our capital can easily take care of, since then we’re needlessly helping the insurance company to pay its expenses.

Hooke, Robert. How to Tell the Liars from the Statisticians (Popular Statistics). 1 ed. Boca Raton: CRC, 1983. Print. (Page 35)

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